Recent ensemble forecasts from major meteorological models, including ECMWF and GFS runs through August 12, place Warsaw’s August 15 daytime maximum near 29–31 °C under a broad area of high pressure and light southerly flow. Subtle differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the timing of peak insolation create the tight clustering around 30–31 °C, with any increase in afternoon convection or stronger winds likely trimming the high by 1–2 °C. Historical August variability in central Poland shows standard deviations of roughly 2–3 °C around the 25 °C climatological normal, underscoring why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 29–31 °C band while assigning low odds to extremes outside 28–32 °C. Updated model guidance expected later today will further refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.