The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and leadership transitions has shaped trader consensus against any coup attempt by June 30. After strikes that began February 28 and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, clerical and military institutions quickly installed a successor while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidated influence within existing structures rather than fracturing them. As of mid-May 2026, ongoing negotiations with the United States over nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with official emphasis on economic stabilization and protest suppression, show no verified signs of elite-level splits or organized challenges to authority. This continuity, despite internal pressures and external strikes, underpins the 91 percent probability assigned to no coup materializing in the remaining weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,126,183 Объем
$1,126,183 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,126,183 Объем
$1,126,183 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and leadership transitions has shaped trader consensus against any coup attempt by June 30. After strikes that began February 28 and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, clerical and military institutions quickly installed a successor while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidated influence within existing structures rather than fracturing them. As of mid-May 2026, ongoing negotiations with the United States over nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with official emphasis on economic stabilization and protest suppression, show no verified signs of elite-level splits or organized challenges to authority. This continuity, despite internal pressures and external strikes, underpins the 91 percent probability assigned to no coup materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,126,183Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and leadership transitions has shaped trader consensus against any coup attempt by June 30. After strikes that began February 28 and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, clerical and military institutions quickly installed a successor while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidated influence within existing structures rather than fracturing them. As of mid-May 2026, ongoing negotiations with the United States over nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with official emphasis on economic stabilization and protest suppression, show no verified signs of elite-level splits or organized challenges to authority. This continuity, despite internal pressures and external strikes, underpins the 91 percent probability assigned to no coup materializing in the remaining weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,126,183Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and leadership transitions has shaped trader consensus against any coup attempt by June 30. After strikes that began February 28 and the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, clerical and military institutions quickly installed a successor while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps consolidated influence within existing structures rather than fracturing them. As of mid-May 2026, ongoing negotiations with the United States over nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with official emphasis on economic stabilization and protest suppression, show no verified signs of elite-level splits or organized challenges to authority. This continuity, despite internal pressures and external strikes, underpins the 91 percent probability assigned to no coup materializing in the remaining weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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