Iran’s political landscape in mid-2026 remains shaped by the February war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transitions that have fueled internal power struggles. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including figures associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei and other establishment elements, prompting warnings of an impending coup amid fragile ceasefires and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. Nationwide protests that began in late 2025, economic pressures, and external regime-change signals from opposition figures have heightened uncertainty over institutional control and succession. Upcoming diplomatic efforts to stabilize shipping routes and any further IRGC or opposition moves could shift dynamics, as traders assess risks of military intervention or elite infighting in the post-Khamenei environment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,117,676 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
11%
$2,117,676 Объем
31 декабря
$76,450 Объем
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape in mid-2026 remains shaped by the February war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transitions that have fueled internal power struggles. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including figures associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei and other establishment elements, prompting warnings of an impending coup amid fragile ceasefires and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. Nationwide protests that began in late 2025, economic pressures, and external regime-change signals from opposition figures have heightened uncertainty over institutional control and succession. Upcoming diplomatic efforts to stabilize shipping routes and any further IRGC or opposition moves could shift dynamics, as traders assess risks of military intervention or elite infighting in the post-Khamenei environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Объем
$2,117,676Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape in mid-2026 remains shaped by the February war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transitions that have fueled internal power struggles. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including figures associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei and other establishment elements, prompting warnings of an impending coup amid fragile ceasefires and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. Nationwide protests that began in late 2025, economic pressures, and external regime-change signals from opposition figures have heightened uncertainty over institutional control and succession. Upcoming diplomatic efforts to stabilize shipping routes and any further IRGC or opposition moves could shift dynamics, as traders assess risks of military intervention or elite infighting in the post-Khamenei environment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,117,676Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political landscape in mid-2026 remains shaped by the February war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transitions that have fueled internal power struggles. Hardliners have publicly accused senior officials, including figures associated with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, of plotting against Mojtaba Khamenei and other establishment elements, prompting warnings of an impending coup amid fragile ceasefires and renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions. Nationwide protests that began in late 2025, economic pressures, and external regime-change signals from opposition figures have heightened uncertainty over institutional control and succession. Upcoming diplomatic efforts to stabilize shipping routes and any further IRGC or opposition moves could shift dynamics, as traders assess risks of military intervention or elite infighting in the post-Khamenei environment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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