The Justice Department’s April 2026 decision to close its criminal probe into Jerome Powell—centered on alleged false statements about a $2.5 billion Federal Reserve headquarters renovation and related congressional testimony—remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities of federal charges by year-end near 3%. A federal judge had earlier quashed grand jury subpoenas for lack of evidence beyond policy disputes, and no new referrals, inspector general findings, or prosecutorial activity have surfaced since the closure. Powell’s term as chair ended in May, further reducing near-term exposure. Traders continue to price in historical base rates showing that political friction alone rarely produces indictments of central bank officials, with resolution hinging on any unexpected congressional or executive developments before December 31.