**Forecast models from sources including Yr.no and international ensembles currently indicate a minimum temperature near 26–28°C for Guangzhou on August 29, driven by persistent subtropical moisture, light winds, and cloud cover following recent heavy rainfall.** High humidity (often above 80–90%) and overnight cloudiness limit radiative cooling, keeping lows elevated compared to drier historical analogs. Multiple runs show only modest day-to-day variation, with the Guangdong region under a moist southerly flow that favors overnight temperatures in this narrow band rather than sharp drops below 24°C or spikes above 30°C. Traders appear to assign the highest implied probability to 21°C or below amid model spread and potential for localized cooling in urban heat-island effects or brief clear spells, while clustering probabilities around 25–28°C reflect the consensus range from the latest available guidance. New China Meteorological Administration and global model updates over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria for this short-range market.