Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory project a minimum of 26°C for August 31 amid a broad low-pressure trough driving unsettled conditions, including showers, thunderstorms, and high humidity across Guangdong coastal areas. This setup favors overnight radiative cooling limited by persistent cloud cover and rainfall, positioning 26°C as the modal outcome while allowing modest downside risk to 25°C if heavier overnight convection develops. Historical late-August normals hover near 26–27°C, providing context for the tight clustering of implied probabilities around these values. Model consensus and the absence of stronger continental outflow or tropical influences keep upside potential to 27°C or higher limited unless steering patterns shift. Updated HKO guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria.