Short-term forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate overnight lows in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 15 around 24–26°C, driven by elevated humidity and variable cloud cover that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Persistent summer moisture and scattered showers or thunderstorms—expected with 30–60% probability—reduce temperature drops compared to clear-sky conditions, keeping minima above the seasonal average low near 23°C. Model consensus shows minor spreads due to steering patterns and precipitation timing, which can shift the daily minimum by 1–2°C. Trader-implied odds clustered at 24°C (36%) and 25°C (31%) reflect this narrow uncertainty band ahead of updated KMA and ensemble runs.