Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Shanghai’s nighttime low on August 25 will likely settle near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies, light easterly or southeasterly winds, and elevated humidity that limits radiational cooling. Persistent influence from a strong subtropical high has maintained above-average warmth across the Yangtze River Delta, keeping recent overnight minima in the 26–27 °C range and suppressing stronger drops despite the seasonal decline in daylight. Urban heat-island effects in the densely built city further anchor temperatures, while the absence of incoming cold air or organized frontal systems reduces the chance of notably cooler readings. Market-implied odds heavily favor 27 °C because ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around this threshold, with 26 °C as the main alternative if clearer skies develop overnight. Final resolution will hinge on official station observations, typically reported by the China Meteorological Administration shortly after the calendar day ends.