Current forecasts for Taipei on September 15, 2026, show overnight lows near 23–25°C under partly cloudy skies, northeast winds of 7–14 km/h, and high humidity above 80%, which together limit radiative cooling and support market-implied odds clustering around 25–26°C. Persistent cloud cover reduces surface heat loss compared with clear conditions, while urban heat retention and dew points near 22°C further moderate overnight drops. Model runs indicate minor variability tied to exact wind mixing and any brief showers, with 23°C requiring stronger clearing and calmer air than currently expected. Official Central Weather Administration observations will resolve the market, incorporating station-specific data amid typical September seasonal norms of 24–26°C lows.