Recent ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models indicate a lowest temperature near 24–25°C for Tokyo on September 1, driven by persistent Pacific high pressure and southerly flow that sustains warm, humid air with extensive cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Overnight lows have recently held in the 23–25°C range amid above-normal late-summer conditions, consistent with seasonal baselines of about 22°C but elevated by residual heat. No significant cold front or typhoon influence is expected to arrive in time to alter this trajectory before resolution, leaving traders favoring the 24°C outcome at 46.5% implied probability while assigning lower odds to cooler or warmer extremes.