Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 30 will likely settle near 22°C under mostly cloudy skies and light northerly winds following the passage of a frontal system that brought cooler, moister air on August 29. This positioning aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C at 55.5% implied probability, as persistent cloud cover limits radiational cooling while dew points remain elevated around 20–21°C. Recent observations show daytime highs dropping from 32–34°C earlier in the week to the upper 20s, consistent with seasonal norms for late August when minimum temperatures average near 23°C. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before market resolution.