Montana’s 2nd congressional district remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern rural and energy-producing counties and a partisan voting index that strongly favors the GOP. Incumbent Troy Downing secured 66 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces no serious primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026 contest, reinforcing trader expectations of another comfortable general-election margin. With primaries still weeks away and no major Democratic recruitment signals emerging, the 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican hold aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and historical voting patterns. A national Democratic surge or an unforeseen primary surprise could narrow the gap, yet current evidence points to limited pathways for such shifts before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей MT-02
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
93%
Демократическая партия
7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$6,411 Объем
93%
Демократическая партия
$2,914 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 2nd congressional district remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern rural and energy-producing counties and a partisan voting index that strongly favors the GOP. Incumbent Troy Downing secured 66 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces no serious primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026 contest, reinforcing trader expectations of another comfortable general-election margin. With primaries still weeks away and no major Democratic recruitment signals emerging, the 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican hold aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and historical voting patterns. A national Democratic surge or an unforeseen primary surprise could narrow the gap, yet current evidence points to limited pathways for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Объем
$9,324Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Montana’s 2nd congressional district remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern rural and energy-producing counties and a partisan voting index that strongly favors the GOP. Incumbent Troy Downing secured 66 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces no serious primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026 contest, reinforcing trader expectations of another comfortable general-election margin. With primaries still weeks away and no major Democratic recruitment signals emerging, the 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican hold aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and historical voting patterns. A national Democratic surge or an unforeseen primary surprise could narrow the gap, yet current evidence points to limited pathways for such shifts before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$9,324Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana’s 2nd congressional district remains a reliably Republican seat, anchored by its eastern rural and energy-producing counties and a partisan voting index that strongly favors the GOP. Incumbent Troy Downing secured 66 percent of the vote in 2024 and faces no serious primary opposition ahead of the June 2, 2026 contest, reinforcing trader expectations of another comfortable general-election margin. With primaries still weeks away and no major Democratic recruitment signals emerging, the 92.5 percent implied probability for a Republican hold aligns with the district’s structural fundamentals and historical voting patterns. A national Democratic surge or an unforeseen primary surprise could narrow the gap, yet current evidence points to limited pathways for such shifts before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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