Incumbent Democrat Veronica Escobar seeks a fifth term in Texas's 16th congressional district, which encompasses most of El Paso County and maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential margins exceeding 15 points and a Solid D rating from major forecasters. The Republican nominee, Adam Bauman, advanced through the May 2026 primary runoff but confronts structural challenges including the district's urban and Hispanic voter base, historical turnout patterns, and the incumbent's established name recognition plus fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, or significantly depressed Democratic participation in the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTX-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
TX-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$13,035 Объем
$13,035 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
94%
Республиканская партия
6%
$13,035 Объем
$13,035 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$6,609 Объем
94%
Республиканская партия
$6,427 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Veronica Escobar seeks a fifth term in Texas's 16th congressional district, which encompasses most of El Paso County and maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential margins exceeding 15 points and a Solid D rating from major forecasters. The Republican nominee, Adam Bauman, advanced through the May 2026 primary runoff but confronts structural challenges including the district's urban and Hispanic voter base, historical turnout patterns, and the incumbent's established name recognition plus fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, or significantly depressed Democratic participation in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$13,035Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Veronica Escobar seeks a fifth term in Texas's 16th congressional district, which encompasses most of El Paso County and maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential margins exceeding 15 points and a Solid D rating from major forecasters. The Republican nominee, Adam Bauman, advanced through the May 2026 primary runoff but confronts structural challenges including the district's urban and Hispanic voter base, historical turnout patterns, and the incumbent's established name recognition plus fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, or significantly depressed Democratic participation in the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$13,035Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Veronica Escobar seeks a fifth term in Texas's 16th congressional district, which encompasses most of El Paso County and maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential margins exceeding 15 points and a Solid D rating from major forecasters. The Republican nominee, Adam Bauman, advanced through the May 2026 primary runoff but confronts structural challenges including the district's urban and Hispanic voter base, historical turnout patterns, and the incumbent's established name recognition plus fundraising edge. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these district fundamentals and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the baseline. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap include a late national Republican surge, an unexpected scandal affecting the incumbent, or significantly depressed Democratic participation in the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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