The November 7 general election under New Zealand’s MMP system has produced a tight contest, with recent 1News-Verian polling showing National and Labour tied at 28% each while the Greens reach a record 16%. This leaves both Christopher Luxon’s centre-right coalition and a potential Labour-led bloc competitive, sustaining trader views of Luxon as a narrow favorite over Chris Hipkins. Low approval ratings for both major-party leaders, cost-of-living pressures, and uncertainty over minor-party thresholds and coalition deals with ACT, NZ First, the Greens, or Opportunity have kept the implied probabilities close. Late-campaign developments in party support, economic indicators, or voter turnout could widen the gap before election night.