Recent polling aggregates and seat models show the Parti Québécois maintaining a lead near 30% in popular vote with efficient francophone support, positioning it for a likely majority on October 5 while the CAQ has collapsed below 20% and the PLQ has edged up modestly to the low-to-mid 20s. The PLQ’s projected seat range centers on the low-to-mid 30s because its strength remains concentrated in Montreal-area ridings with limited francophone penetration elsewhere, while vote hardening and regional shifts in the Québec City area favor the Conservatives and PQ. Trader ranges cluster tightly around 32–39 seats because final-week polling volatility, turnout differentials, and a handful of competitive ridings could still alter the exact tally within that band. Late developments such as the CAQ’s further decline or any last-minute consolidation behind the PLQ could widen or narrow outcomes, though the structural francophone gap continues to cap upside potential.