Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.0% from 3.1% in March—driven primarily by sharp fuel and energy price increases—has tilted trader sentiment toward further tightening ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s July 23 meeting. With the policy rate already at 7% following the May 25 basis point hike, the market’s near-even split between a 25 basis point hike (47.5% implied probability) and a 50-plus basis point move (42.5%) reflects uncertainty over the pace of normalization required to anchor expectations around the 3% target. The June 17 CPI release and any rand volatility from global oil dynamics remain key swing factors that could shift the consensus before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSouth African Reserve Bank decision in July?
South African Reserve Bank decision in July?
50+ bps hike 85%
50+ bps cut 69%
25 bps hike 51%
No Change 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps cut
69%
25 bps cut
5%
No Change
27%
25 bps hike
47%
50+ bps hike
85%
50+ bps hike 85%
50+ bps cut 69%
25 bps hike 51%
No Change 20%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
23 июл. 2026 г.
50+ bps cut
$43 Объем
69%
25 bps cut
$61 Объем
5%
No Change
$547 Объем
27%
25 bps hike
$551 Объем
47%
50+ bps hike
$53 Объем
85%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.0% from 3.1% in March—driven primarily by sharp fuel and energy price increases—has tilted trader sentiment toward further tightening ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s July 23 meeting. With the policy rate already at 7% following the May 25 basis point hike, the market’s near-even split between a 25 basis point hike (47.5% implied probability) and a 50-plus basis point move (42.5%) reflects uncertainty over the pace of normalization required to anchor expectations around the 3% target. The June 17 CPI release and any rand volatility from global oil dynamics remain key swing factors that could shift the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$1,256Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.0% from 3.1% in March—driven primarily by sharp fuel and energy price increases—has tilted trader sentiment toward further tightening ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s July 23 meeting. With the policy rate already at 7% following the May 25 basis point hike, the market’s near-even split between a 25 basis point hike (47.5% implied probability) and a 50-plus basis point move (42.5%) reflects uncertainty over the pace of normalization required to anchor expectations around the 3% target. The June 17 CPI release and any rand volatility from global oil dynamics remain key swing factors that could shift the consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Объем
$1,256Дата окончания
23 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation accelerating to 4.0% from 3.1% in March—driven primarily by sharp fuel and energy price increases—has tilted trader sentiment toward further tightening ahead of the South African Reserve Bank’s July 23 meeting. With the policy rate already at 7% following the May 25 basis point hike, the market’s near-even split between a 25 basis point hike (47.5% implied probability) and a 50-plus basis point move (42.5%) reflects uncertainty over the pace of normalization required to anchor expectations around the 3% target. The June 17 CPI release and any rand volatility from global oil dynamics remain key swing factors that could shift the consensus before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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