Elevated near-term inflation pressures from Middle East-driven oil and fuel price spikes have lifted March-quarter CPI to 3.1 percent and prompted RBNZ projections of a temporary jump toward 4.2 percent, positioning the market-implied 64.0 percent probability of an Official Cash Rate increase at the July 8 meeting. With the OCR currently at 2.25 percent—well below the estimated 3.0 percent neutral rate—traders interpret the policy stance as stimulatory and expect gradual normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Persistent weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent no-change odds, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement stands as the key upcoming catalyst that could refine the projected policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase 64%
No Change 30%
Decrease 1.9%
Increase
64%
No Change
30%
Decrease
2%
Increase 64%
No Change 30%
Decrease 1.9%
Increase
64%
No Change
30%
Decrease
2%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated near-term inflation pressures from Middle East-driven oil and fuel price spikes have lifted March-quarter CPI to 3.1 percent and prompted RBNZ projections of a temporary jump toward 4.2 percent, positioning the market-implied 64.0 percent probability of an Official Cash Rate increase at the July 8 meeting. With the OCR currently at 2.25 percent—well below the estimated 3.0 percent neutral rate—traders interpret the policy stance as stimulatory and expect gradual normalization as two-year inflation expectations rise to 2.53 percent. Persistent weak domestic demand and labor-market slack sustain the 29.5 percent no-change odds, while the May 27 Monetary Policy Statement stands as the key upcoming catalyst that could refine the projected policy path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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