President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated calls for a new civilian constitution, including his May 11 address emphasizing removal of the 1982 charter’s “democratic shame,” have not produced the parliamentary support required to trigger a referendum. With the AKP-MHP coalition holding roughly 321 seats in the 600-member assembly, the government remains well short of the 360 votes needed to send amendments to a popular vote or the 400 needed to bypass one entirely. Opposition parties, notably the CHP, have rejected participation in reform talks, leaving no viable path to an announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign a 66.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally called in 2026, reflecting the unchanged legislative arithmetic and absence of cross-party consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated calls for a new civilian constitution, including his May 11 address emphasizing removal of the 1982 charter’s “democratic shame,” have not produced the parliamentary support required to trigger a referendum. With the AKP-MHP coalition holding roughly 321 seats in the 600-member assembly, the government remains well short of the 360 votes needed to send amendments to a popular vote or the 400 needed to bypass one entirely. Opposition parties, notably the CHP, have rejected participation in reform talks, leaving no viable path to an announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign a 66.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally called in 2026, reflecting the unchanged legislative arithmetic and absence of cross-party consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Объем
$529Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated calls for a new civilian constitution, including his May 11 address emphasizing removal of the 1982 charter’s “democratic shame,” have not produced the parliamentary support required to trigger a referendum. With the AKP-MHP coalition holding roughly 321 seats in the 600-member assembly, the government remains well short of the 360 votes needed to send amendments to a popular vote or the 400 needed to bypass one entirely. Opposition parties, notably the CHP, have rejected participation in reform talks, leaving no viable path to an announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign a 66.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally called in 2026, reflecting the unchanged legislative arithmetic and absence of cross-party consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$529Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s repeated calls for a new civilian constitution, including his May 11 address emphasizing removal of the 1982 charter’s “democratic shame,” have not produced the parliamentary support required to trigger a referendum. With the AKP-MHP coalition holding roughly 321 seats in the 600-member assembly, the government remains well short of the 360 votes needed to send amendments to a popular vote or the 400 needed to bypass one entirely. Opposition parties, notably the CHP, have rejected participation in reform talks, leaving no viable path to an announcement before year-end. Traders therefore assign a 66.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally called in 2026, reflecting the unchanged legislative arithmetic and absence of cross-party consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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