Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, anchored in unwavering official affirmations of Kyiv's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas. Despite the second Trump administration's pivot from aid to negotiations—halting new military packages and intelligence sharing since March 2025—State Department and congressional rhetoric upholds non-recognition of annexations. Key recent drivers include Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's May 13 claim of persistent Biden-era anti-Russia policy, bipartisan House legislation advancing Ukraine support within hours, and Europe's stepped-up security role as US contributions wane. Ongoing ceasefire talks show no territorial concessions, with Congress poised to counter executive restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$41,729 Объем
$41,729 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$41,729 Объем
$41,729 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, anchored in unwavering official affirmations of Kyiv's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas. Despite the second Trump administration's pivot from aid to negotiations—halting new military packages and intelligence sharing since March 2025—State Department and congressional rhetoric upholds non-recognition of annexations. Key recent drivers include Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's May 13 claim of persistent Biden-era anti-Russia policy, bipartisan House legislation advancing Ukraine support within hours, and Europe's stepped-up security role as US contributions wane. Ongoing ceasefire talks show no territorial concessions, with Congress poised to counter executive restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ET
Объем
$41,729Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, anchored in unwavering official affirmations of Kyiv's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas. Despite the second Trump administration's pivot from aid to negotiations—halting new military packages and intelligence sharing since March 2025—State Department and congressional rhetoric upholds non-recognition of annexations. Key recent drivers include Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's May 13 claim of persistent Biden-era anti-Russia policy, bipartisan House legislation advancing Ukraine support within hours, and Europe's stepped-up security role as US contributions wane. Ongoing ceasefire talks show no territorial concessions, with Congress poised to counter executive restraint.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially recognizes Russian sovereignty over any portion of Ukrainian territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.
Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.
Ukrainian territory is defined as any portion of Ukraine as recognized by the UN at the start of the present conflict on February 24, 2022, including Crimea.
The resolution source will be official U.S. government statements and credible reporting from major news organizations.
Объем
$41,729Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 77% implied probability against US recognition of Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027, anchored in unwavering official affirmations of Kyiv's territorial integrity, including Crimea and Donbas. Despite the second Trump administration's pivot from aid to negotiations—halting new military packages and intelligence sharing since March 2025—State Department and congressional rhetoric upholds non-recognition of annexations. Key recent drivers include Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's May 13 claim of persistent Biden-era anti-Russia policy, bipartisan House legislation advancing Ukraine support within hours, and Europe's stepped-up security role as US contributions wane. Ongoing ceasefire talks show no territorial concessions, with Congress poised to counter executive restraint.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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