Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,009 Объем
$24,009 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
3%
500–600 млрд
5%
600–700 млрд
9%
700–800 млрд
31%
800–900 млрд
42%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
15%
1–1,1 трлн
5%
1,1 трлн+
5%
$24,009 Объем
$24,009 Объем
28 фев. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$16,848 Объем
3%
500–600 млрд
$454 Объем
5%
600–700 млрд
$543 Объем
9%
700–800 млрд
$670 Объем
31%
800–900 млрд
$1,519 Объем
42%
900 млрд – 1 трлн
$1,397 Объем
15%
1–1,1 трлн
$1,458 Объем
5%
1,1 трлн+
$1,119 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$24,009Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Объем
$24,009Дата окончания
28 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods and services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative figures at $371.2 billion—down sharply from $560.5 billion a year earlier—reflecting lower imports of capital and consumer goods after 2025 tariff front-loading. Persistent tariff effects, slower import growth, and modest export gains in services are compressing the annual total toward the $700–900 billion range. Market-implied odds favor the 800–900 billion bracket as traders weigh ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rebound in import demand against the current trajectory. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the deficit stabilizes near recent lows or widens with economic momentum.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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