The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$118,396 Объем
$118,396 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$118,396 Объем
$118,396 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Объем
$118,396Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$118,396Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—the group's third-largest producer at the time—has already tested cartel cohesion amid disputes over production quotas and national output goals. Remaining members, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan, have since reaffirmed commitments to coordinated cuts and market stability through multiple ministerial meetings and production adjustments into June. No additional exits have been announced or credibly signaled in the six weeks following the UAE move, despite prior precedents like Angola in 2024. Trader consensus at 83.5% for no further departures in 2026 reflects this lack of momentum, institutional continuity in OPEC+ decision-making, and absence of comparable quota conflicts among core producers before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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