Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, because no observable large-scale military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or abrupt diplomatic rupture has emerged in the past month to indicate imminent action. Ongoing routine naval drills and standard cross-strait rhetoric continue without crossing thresholds that historically precede escalation, while U.S. and regional security partnerships remain steady. The compressed six-week window further limits realistic pathways for sudden operational readiness. Even so, an unexpected leadership decision, rapid deterioration in bilateral communications, or unforeseen external trigger could still shift assessments before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$8,322,247 Объем
$8,322,247 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$8,322,247 Объем
$8,322,247 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, because no observable large-scale military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or abrupt diplomatic rupture has emerged in the past month to indicate imminent action. Ongoing routine naval drills and standard cross-strait rhetoric continue without crossing thresholds that historically precede escalation, while U.S. and regional security partnerships remain steady. The compressed six-week window further limits realistic pathways for sudden operational readiness. Even so, an unexpected leadership decision, rapid deterioration in bilateral communications, or unforeseen external trigger could still shift assessments before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Объем
$8,322,247Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, because no observable large-scale military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or abrupt diplomatic rupture has emerged in the past month to indicate imminent action. Ongoing routine naval drills and standard cross-strait rhetoric continue without crossing thresholds that historically precede escalation, while U.S. and regional security partnerships remain steady. The compressed six-week window further limits realistic pathways for sudden operational readiness. Even so, an unexpected leadership decision, rapid deterioration in bilateral communications, or unforeseen external trigger could still shift assessments before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$8,322,269Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign overwhelming probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, because no observable large-scale military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or abrupt diplomatic rupture has emerged in the past month to indicate imminent action. Ongoing routine naval drills and standard cross-strait rhetoric continue without crossing thresholds that historically precede escalation, while U.S. and regional security partnerships remain steady. The compressed six-week window further limits realistic pathways for sudden operational readiness. Even so, an unexpected leadership decision, rapid deterioration in bilateral communications, or unforeseen external trigger could still shift assessments before the deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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