US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military exercises, gray-zone tactics, and economic pressure instead. Ongoing PLA activities through mid-2026, including blockade simulations and drone swarm development, align with this approach rather than imminent amphibious operations, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% “No” probability. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rapid mobilization, major cross-strait miscalculations during drills, or unforeseen changes in US or regional alliance postures before the September 30, 2026 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,195,080 Объем
$1,195,080 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
$1,195,080 Объем
$1,195,080 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military exercises, gray-zone tactics, and economic pressure instead. Ongoing PLA activities through mid-2026, including blockade simulations and drone swarm development, align with this approach rather than imminent amphibious operations, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% “No” probability. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rapid mobilization, major cross-strait miscalculations during drills, or unforeseen changes in US or regional alliance postures before the September 30, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$1,195,080Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military exercises, gray-zone tactics, and economic pressure instead. Ongoing PLA activities through mid-2026, including blockade simulations and drone swarm development, align with this approach rather than imminent amphibious operations, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% “No” probability. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rapid mobilization, major cross-strait miscalculations during drills, or unforeseen changes in US or regional alliance postures before the September 30, 2026 resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,195,080Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline for Taiwan unification and do not currently plan an invasion in 2027, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military exercises, gray-zone tactics, and economic pressure instead. Ongoing PLA activities through mid-2026, including blockade simulations and drone swarm development, align with this approach rather than imminent amphibious operations, supporting trader consensus reflected in the 97.5% “No” probability. Realistic shifts could stem from undetected rapid mobilization, major cross-strait miscalculations during drills, or unforeseen changes in US or regional alliance postures before the September 30, 2026 resolution date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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