Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives signaling imminent offensive operations on such a compressed timeline. Recent Taiwanese Han Kuang exercises concluded with record reservist mobilization and drills testing supply-chain resilience, drone navigation under jamming, and command flexibility, underscoring defensive posture without corresponding Chinese escalation beyond routine air-defense zone incursions and coast-guard patrols. U.S. intelligence assessments and regional analyses continue to emphasize coercive measures short of war as Beijing’s prevailing approach, consistent with Xi Jinping’s public statements on “unstoppable” reunification framed around long-term political and economic pressure. A narrow window for reversal remains if drills produce miscalculation or an unforeseen incident rapidly alters escalation dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
<1% вероятность
$1,909,717 Объем
$1,909,717 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$1,909,717 Объем
$1,909,717 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives signaling imminent offensive operations on such a compressed timeline. Recent Taiwanese Han Kuang exercises concluded with record reservist mobilization and drills testing supply-chain resilience, drone navigation under jamming, and command flexibility, underscoring defensive posture without corresponding Chinese escalation beyond routine air-defense zone incursions and coast-guard patrols. U.S. intelligence assessments and regional analyses continue to emphasize coercive measures short of war as Beijing’s prevailing approach, consistent with Xi Jinping’s public statements on “unstoppable” reunification framed around long-term political and economic pressure. A narrow window for reversal remains if drills produce miscalculation or an unforeseen incident rapidly alters escalation dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Объем
$1,909,717Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives signaling imminent offensive operations on such a compressed timeline. Recent Taiwanese Han Kuang exercises concluded with record reservist mobilization and drills testing supply-chain resilience, drone navigation under jamming, and command flexibility, underscoring defensive posture without corresponding Chinese escalation beyond routine air-defense zone incursions and coast-guard patrols. U.S. intelligence assessments and regional analyses continue to emphasize coercive measures short of war as Beijing’s prevailing approach, consistent with Xi Jinping’s public statements on “unstoppable” reunification framed around long-term political and economic pressure. A narrow window for reversal remains if drills produce miscalculation or an unforeseen incident rapidly alters escalation dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$1,909,717Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of observable PLA force concentrations, amphibious logistics surges, or leadership directives signaling imminent offensive operations on such a compressed timeline. Recent Taiwanese Han Kuang exercises concluded with record reservist mobilization and drills testing supply-chain resilience, drone navigation under jamming, and command flexibility, underscoring defensive posture without corresponding Chinese escalation beyond routine air-defense zone incursions and coast-guard patrols. U.S. intelligence assessments and regional analyses continue to emphasize coercive measures short of war as Beijing’s prevailing approach, consistent with Xi Jinping’s public statements on “unstoppable” reunification framed around long-term political and economic pressure. A narrow window for reversal remains if drills produce miscalculation or an unforeseen incident rapidly alters escalation dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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