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Мир·Ближний Восток

Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?

icon for Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?

Да

2% вероятность
Polymarket

$698,593 Объем

Да

2% вероятность
Polymarket

$698,593 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office without any death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity that would trigger Iran’s constitutional requirement for a presidential election within fifty days. Under this framework the Guardian Council designates an interim leader only after such a vacancy occurs, yet no such development has taken place in the past thirty days despite occasional unverified reports of internal strains. Pezeshkian’s public schedule, including meetings with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues without interruption, and the next regular four-year cycle established after the 2024 contest falls well beyond June 30. Trader consensus therefore places near-certain probability on no election occurring by that date. The sole realistic scenario that could still shift this outcome is an abrupt leadership change before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$698,593
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office without any death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity that would trigger Iran’s constitutional requirement for a presidential election within fifty days. Under this framework the Guardian Council designates an interim leader only after such a vacancy occurs, yet no such development has taken place in the past thirty days despite occasional unverified reports of internal strains. Pezeshkian’s public schedule, including meetings with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, continues without interruption, and the next regular four-year cycle established after the 2024 contest falls well beyond June 30. Trader consensus therefore places near-certain probability on no election occurring by that date. The sole realistic scenario that could still shift this outcome is an abrupt leadership change before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.

Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.

Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$698,593
Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place. Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Проведёт ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» с 2%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 2¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 2%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $698.6K с момента запуска рынка Mar 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» — «Проведёт ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» всего с 2%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Проведет ли Иран президентские выборы до 30 июня?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.