The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by Stephen Gethins's election to the Scottish Parliament, is scheduled for 18 June 2026. Trader consensus heavily favors SNP candidate Lara Bird due to the party's prior hold on the constituency, established local campaigning momentum, and typical advantages for the incumbent party in Scottish by-elections. The five confirmed candidates—Bird for the SNP, Tanvir Ahmad for the Liberal Democrats, Jack Cruickshanks for the Conservatives, Heather Doran for Labour, and Bill Reid for Reform UK—face first-past-the-post voting with limited time for challengers to build profiles. Recent door-to-door efforts and party endorsements in the final week have reinforced Bird's position, while the short campaign window and absence of major shifts in Scottish political dynamics limit upside for other contenders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner
2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner
Lara Bird 88%
Bill Reid 11.6%
Heather Doran 1.4%
Jack Cruickshanks 1.3%
Lara Bird
88%
Bill Reid
12%
Heather Doran
1%
Jack Cruickshanks
1%
Tanvir Ahmad
1%
Lara Bird 88%
Bill Reid 11.6%
Heather Doran 1.4%
Jack Cruickshanks 1.3%
Lara Bird
88%
Bill Reid
12%
Heather Doran
1%
Jack Cruickshanks
1%
Tanvir Ahmad
1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Angus Council (https://www.angus.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry UK parliamentary seat, triggered by Stephen Gethins's election to the Scottish Parliament, is scheduled for 18 June 2026. Trader consensus heavily favors SNP candidate Lara Bird due to the party's prior hold on the constituency, established local campaigning momentum, and typical advantages for the incumbent party in Scottish by-elections. The five confirmed candidates—Bird for the SNP, Tanvir Ahmad for the Liberal Democrats, Jack Cruickshanks for the Conservatives, Heather Doran for Labour, and Bill Reid for Reform UK—face first-past-the-post voting with limited time for challengers to build profiles. Recent door-to-door efforts and party endorsements in the final week have reinforced Bird's position, while the short campaign window and absence of major shifts in Scottish political dynamics limit upside for other contenders.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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