The SNP's selection of Richard Gordon Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency with extensive local government experience in Aberdeenshire, underpins trader consensus favoring his victory in the 18 June 2026 by-election. The contest follows Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, with the SNP retaining a structural advantage in this North Sea energy seat where oil and gas policy remains a central campaign issue. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate and MSP, represents the main opposition challenge amid broader UK-wide shifts in voter priorities. Other candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali, trail significantly in implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent polling movement or breakthrough developments in the final days before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 Aberdeen South By-Election Winner
2026 Aberdeen South By-Election Winner
Richard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,287 ปริมาณ
$10,287 ปริมาณ
Richard Gordon Thomson
72%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
David Ballantine
<1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
Richard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,287 ปริมาณ
$10,287 ปริมาณ
Richard Gordon Thomson
72%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
David Ballantine
<1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Mel Sullivan
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The SNP's selection of Richard Gordon Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency with extensive local government experience in Aberdeenshire, underpins trader consensus favoring his victory in the 18 June 2026 by-election. The contest follows Stephen Flynn's resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, with the SNP retaining a structural advantage in this North Sea energy seat where oil and gas policy remains a central campaign issue. Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative candidate and MSP, represents the main opposition challenge amid broader UK-wide shifts in voter priorities. Other candidates, including Labour's Nurul Hoque Ali, trail significantly in implied probabilities, reflecting limited recent polling movement or breakthrough developments in the final days before polling.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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