Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no military clash will occur before 2027 primarily because the remaining window through December 2026 is too brief for the visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for major operations. Recent developments include China's July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, yet both reflect routine posturing rather than imminent escalation. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang ahead of future elections while prioritizing PLA capability milestones around 2027, and U.S. assessments highlight persistent readiness gaps plus high intervention costs. These factors sustain the market's assessment of contained tensions absent sudden triggers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,217,829 ปริมาณ
$3,217,829 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
7% โอกาส
$3,217,829 ปริมาณ
$3,217,829 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no military clash will occur before 2027 primarily because the remaining window through December 2026 is too brief for the visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for major operations. Recent developments include China's July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, yet both reflect routine posturing rather than imminent escalation. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang ahead of future elections while prioritizing PLA capability milestones around 2027, and U.S. assessments highlight persistent readiness gaps plus high intervention costs. These factors sustain the market's assessment of contained tensions absent sudden triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,217,829วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no military clash will occur before 2027 primarily because the remaining window through December 2026 is too brief for the visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for major operations. Recent developments include China's July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, yet both reflect routine posturing rather than imminent escalation. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang ahead of future elections while prioritizing PLA capability milestones around 2027, and U.S. assessments highlight persistent readiness gaps plus high intervention costs. These factors sustain the market's assessment of contained tensions absent sudden triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,217,829วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no military clash will occur before 2027 primarily because the remaining window through December 2026 is too brief for the visible large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for major operations. Recent developments include China's July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan's August Han Kuang exercises testing reservist mobilization and supply resilience, yet both reflect routine posturing rather than imminent escalation. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang ahead of future elections while prioritizing PLA capability milestones around 2027, and U.S. assessments highlight persistent readiness gaps plus high intervention costs. These factors sustain the market's assessment of contained tensions absent sudden triggers.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย