Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Houston on September 21?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 21?
94-95°F 55%
96-97°F 22%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
5%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
11%
92-93°F
13%
94-95°F
51%
96-97°F
22%
98-99°F
19%
100-101°F
11%
102-103°F
5%
104°F or higher
5%
94-95°F 55%
96-97°F 22%
98-99°F 19%
92-93°F 13%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 21, 2026
85°F or below
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
86-87°F
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
88-89°F
$0 ปริมาณ
7%
90-91°F
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
92-93°F
$0 ปริมาณ
13%
94-95°F
$127 ปริมาณ
51%
96-97°F
$0 ปริมาณ
22%
98-99°F
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
100-101°F
$0 ปริมาณ
11%
102-103°F
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
104°F or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$127วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$127วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 19, 2026, 2:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from NOAA and supporting models points to mid-90s highs in Houston on September 21 amid a strong subtropical ridge promoting subsidence and light winds, which helps explain the market's 50% implied probability on 104°F or higher as traders weigh potential for rapid model shifts or localized heat amplification. Recent observations show heat indices already reaching 105–106°F with dew points in the low 70s, consistent with September's elevated baseline relative to the 88°F historical average. Key variables include Gulf moisture return and any ridge strengthening ahead of resolution, with updated NWS runs and observational data releases likely to refine these odds in coming hours.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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