**Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a typical late-September monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity expected to cap daytime heating on September 19.** Forecasts from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs show peak temperatures most likely in the 29–32°C range, consistent with climatological September averages near 30–31°C and the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone promoting cloud cover and convective rain that reduces solar insolation. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–34°C, as traders weigh the balance between brief clear periods allowing brief spikes versus persistent showers suppressing maxima. Extreme outcomes above 36°C or below 29°C carry low probability due to limited variability in steering patterns and moisture levels. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the key inputs for refining resolution probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on September 19?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 19?
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
29°C 36%
34°C 36%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
36%
30°C
19%
31°C
26%
32°C
37%
33°C
37%
34°C
36%
35°C
19%
36°C
17%
37°C
2%
38°C or higher
<1%
32°C 37%
33°C 37%
29°C 36%
34°C 36%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 19, 2026
28°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
30°C
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
31°C
$0 ปริมาณ
26%
32°C
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
33°C
$0 ปริมาณ
37%
34°C
$0 ปริมาณ
36%
35°C
$0 ปริมาณ
19%
36°C
$0 ปริมาณ
17%
37°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
38°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a typical late-September monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity expected to cap daytime heating on September 19.** Forecasts from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs show peak temperatures most likely in the 29–32°C range, consistent with climatological September averages near 30–31°C and the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone promoting cloud cover and convective rain that reduces solar insolation. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–34°C, as traders weigh the balance between brief clear periods allowing brief spikes versus persistent showers suppressing maxima. Extreme outcomes above 36°C or below 29°C carry low probability due to limited variability in steering patterns and moisture levels. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the key inputs for refining resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a typical late-September monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity expected to cap daytime heating on September 19.** Forecasts from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs show peak temperatures most likely in the 29–32°C range, consistent with climatological September averages near 30–31°C and the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone promoting cloud cover and convective rain that reduces solar insolation. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–34°C, as traders weigh the balance between brief clear periods allowing brief spikes versus persistent showers suppressing maxima. Extreme outcomes above 36°C or below 29°C carry low probability due to limited variability in steering patterns and moisture levels. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the key inputs for refining resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 19, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Recent weather model consensus for Manila points to a typical late-September monsoon pattern, with scattered thunderstorms and high humidity expected to cap daytime heating on September 19.** Forecasts from sources including GFS and ECMWF runs show peak temperatures most likely in the 29–32°C range, consistent with climatological September averages near 30–31°C and the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone promoting cloud cover and convective rain that reduces solar insolation. This explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–34°C, as traders weigh the balance between brief clear periods allowing brief spikes versus persistent showers suppressing maxima. Extreme outcomes above 36°C or below 29°C carry low probability due to limited variability in steering patterns and moisture levels. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the key inputs for refining resolution probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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