Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s August 29 maximum will likely peak between 24–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–50 % chance of brief showers and moderate northerly flow. This tight clustering around 25 °C explains the near-even market split between the 24 °C and 25 °C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, timing of any precipitation, or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology supports similar values, while the absence of strong warm-air advection or subsidence keeps probabilities for 27 °C or higher below 10 %. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
25°C 38%
24°C 33%
23°C 10%
26°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
10%
24°C
33%
25°C
38%
26°C
10%
27°C
5%
28°C
5%
29°C or higher
10%
25°C 38%
24°C 33%
23°C 10%
26°C 10%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 29, 2026
19°C or below
$0 ปริมาณ
1%
20°C
$0 ปริมาณ
3%
21°C
$0 ปริมาณ
4%
22°C
$0 ปริมาณ
2%
23°C
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
24°C
$12 ปริมาณ
33%
25°C
$29 ปริมาณ
38%
26°C
$16 ปริมาณ
10%
27°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
28°C
$0 ปริมาณ
5%
29°C or higher
$0 ปริมาณ
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s August 29 maximum will likely peak between 24–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–50 % chance of brief showers and moderate northerly flow. This tight clustering around 25 °C explains the near-even market split between the 24 °C and 25 °C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, timing of any precipitation, or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology supports similar values, while the absence of strong warm-air advection or subsidence keeps probabilities for 27 °C or higher below 10 %. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s August 29 maximum will likely peak between 24–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–50 % chance of brief showers and moderate northerly flow. This tight clustering around 25 °C explains the near-even market split between the 24 °C and 25 °C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, timing of any precipitation, or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology supports similar values, while the absence of strong warm-air advection or subsidence keeps probabilities for 27 °C or higher below 10 %. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$57วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s August 29 maximum will likely peak between 24–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–50 % chance of brief showers and moderate northerly flow. This tight clustering around 25 °C explains the near-even market split between the 24 °C and 25 °C outcomes, as small shifts in cloud cover, timing of any precipitation, or boundary-layer mixing can alter the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology supports similar values, while the absence of strong warm-air advection or subsidence keeps probabilities for 27 °C or higher below 10 %. Updated model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance in the next 24–48 hours remain the key variables that could refine these market-implied odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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