Current forecasts from multiple models, including consensus runs aligned with NHC and regional meteorological agencies, indicate Busan’s minimum temperature on September 3 will likely fall in the 24–26 °C range. Persistent high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and moderate northeasterly flow are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated relative to climatological norms for early September. Recent model updates show little day-to-day shift, with no strong cold-air advection or clear-sky radiative window expected before resolution. Trader positioning on the 20 °C-or-below and 30 °C-or-higher buckets at equal implied probability reflects residual model spread and uncertainty around exact boundary-layer mixing, while narrower outcomes near 24–25 °C capture the central tendency of ensemble guidance. Updated short-range model runs and observational verification over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts.