Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 15?
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 ปริมาณ
$63,971 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.9%
18°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
26°C <1%
$63,971 ปริมาณ
$63,971 ปริมาณ
May 15, 2026
18°C or below
$2,541 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$2,325 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$2,408 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$2,288 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$3,899 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$5,193 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C
$12,287 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$8,673 ปริมาณ
100%
26°C
$12,015 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$8,229 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C or higher
$4,112 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,971วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$63,971วันสิ้นสุด
May 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory data and regional model consensus have established a minimum air temperature of 25°C for May 15, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that outcome above 99 percent. May climatology shows typical overnight lows between 24 °C and 26 °C under prevailing subtropical high-pressure conditions, with minimal diurnal cooling from urban heat-island effects at the primary measurement site. No significant cold-air advection or cloud-cover anomalies occurred to depress readings below this threshold. Forecasters note that only an unseasonal influx of northerly flow or localized instrumentation variance could have produced an 18 °C or lower result, an outcome now ruled out by post-event verification.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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