Current forecast ensembles from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology for the region supports lows typically between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to historical medians at coastal stations like Pudong, where urban heat island effects add modest warming to rural baselines. Recent surface analyses show stable maritime air under weak pressure gradients, limiting nocturnal cooling. The primary uncertainty stems from potential late adjustments in model guidance or unexpected cold-air advection ahead of resolution, though current data releases from the China Meteorological Administration show no such signals through the overnight period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 ปริมาณ
$11,079 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 ปริมาณ
$11,079 ปริมาณ
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$776 ปริมาณ
<1%
15°C
$626 ปริมาณ
<1%
16°C
$563 ปริมาณ
<1%
17°C
$934 ปริมาณ
<1%
18°C
$901 ปริมาณ
1%
19°C
$2,045 ปริมาณ
99%
20°C
$2,433 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$913 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$528 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$583 ปริมาณ
<1%
24°C or higher
$778 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology for the region supports lows typically between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to historical medians at coastal stations like Pudong, where urban heat island effects add modest warming to rural baselines. Recent surface analyses show stable maritime air under weak pressure gradients, limiting nocturnal cooling. The primary uncertainty stems from potential late adjustments in model guidance or unexpected cold-air advection ahead of resolution, though current data releases from the China Meteorological Administration show no such signals through the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,079วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology for the region supports lows typically between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to historical medians at coastal stations like Pudong, where urban heat island effects add modest warming to rural baselines. Recent surface analyses show stable maritime air under weak pressure gradients, limiting nocturnal cooling. The primary uncertainty stems from potential late adjustments in model guidance or unexpected cold-air advection ahead of resolution, though current data releases from the China Meteorological Administration show no such signals through the overnight period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,079วันสิ้นสุด
May 17, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent forecast ensembles from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate an overnight minimum near 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, driving the market's overwhelming 99.9% implied probability for that outcome. Mid-May climatology for the region supports lows typically between 17°C and 21°C, with 19°C aligning closely to historical medians at coastal stations like Pudong, where urban heat island effects add modest warming to rural baselines. Recent surface analyses show stable maritime air under weak pressure gradients, limiting nocturnal cooling. The primary uncertainty stems from potential late adjustments in model guidance or unexpected cold-air advection ahead of resolution, though current data releases from the China Meteorological Administration show no such signals through the overnight period.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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