Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.4% implied probability of positive U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized growth at 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow nowcast of 4.0% for Q2, signaling accelerating momentum amid robust consumer spending and AI-related investment. Forecasters like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters project 2.5% annual expansion, with recession odds plunging to record lows around 17% on platforms like Kalshi. Key catalysts ahead include the Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 and incoming nonfarm payrolls data, though sustained labor market strength underpins the low risk of contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,508 ปริมาณ
$26,508 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
$26,508 ปริมาณ
$26,508 ปริมาณ
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.4% implied probability of positive U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized growth at 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow nowcast of 4.0% for Q2, signaling accelerating momentum amid robust consumer spending and AI-related investment. Forecasters like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters project 2.5% annual expansion, with recession odds plunging to record lows around 17% on platforms like Kalshi. Key catalysts ahead include the Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 and incoming nonfarm payrolls data, though sustained labor market strength underpins the low risk of contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,508วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.4% implied probability of positive U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized growth at 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow nowcast of 4.0% for Q2, signaling accelerating momentum amid robust consumer spending and AI-related investment. Forecasters like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters project 2.5% annual expansion, with recession odds plunging to record lows around 17% on platforms like Kalshi. Key catalysts ahead include the Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 and incoming nonfarm payrolls data, though sustained labor market strength underpins the low risk of contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$26,508วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 29, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.4% implied probability of positive U.S. real GDP growth for full-year 2026, driven by the Bureau of Economic Analysis's April 30 advance estimate showing Q1 annualized growth at 2.0%—a rebound from Q4 2025's 0.5%—bolstered by the Atlanta Fed's May 14 GDPNow nowcast of 4.0% for Q2, signaling accelerating momentum amid robust consumer spending and AI-related investment. Forecasters like the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters project 2.5% annual expansion, with recession odds plunging to record lows around 17% on platforms like Kalshi. Key catalysts ahead include the Q1 GDP second estimate on May 28 and incoming nonfarm payrolls data, though sustained labor market strength underpins the low risk of contraction.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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