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Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano

icon for AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano
Politika·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano

Jay Feely 72%

Joseph Chaplik 25.8%

Jason Duey 1.4%

Gina Swoboda 1.2%

Polymarket

$405,695 Vol.

Jay Feely 72%

Joseph Chaplik 25.8%

Jason Duey 1.4%

Gina Swoboda 1.2%

Polymarket

$405,695 Vol.

Jay Feely

$7,700 Vol.

72%

Joseph Chaplik

$9,325 Vol.

26%

Jason Duey

$3,092 Vol.

1%

Gina Swoboda

$4,909 Vol.

1%

Matt Gress

$48,804 Vol.

1%

John Trobough

$3,525 Vol.

<1%

Derrick Gallego

$3,766 Vol.

<1%

Kaitlin Purrington

$10,022 Vol.

<1%

Todd Graham

$7,929 Vol.

<1%

Kari Lake

$7,193 Vol.

<1%

Mark Brnovich

$61,436 Vol.

<1%

Paul Reevs

$222,573 Vol.

<1%

Muchelle Ugenti-Rita

$4,589 Vol.

<1%

Brandon Sowers

$10,833 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely maintains a commanding position in the Arizona 1st Congressional District Republican primary through President Trump's January endorsement and superior fundraising that exceeds $1.7 million, bolstering his visibility ahead of the July 21 contest. Recent exchanges in a May 5 televised debate and a May 7 social media clash over immigration comments have drawn scrutiny to Joseph Chaplik, the former state representative who resigned his seat in March to focus on the race. These developments, alongside Chaplik's lower cash reserves, align with the market's 71 percent implied probability for Feely versus 26 percent for Chaplik. The remaining field shows minimal movement, with most candidates holding under 1 percent as traders weigh the advantages of early institutional backing in this open seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$405,695
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jay Feely maintains a commanding position in the Arizona 1st Congressional District Republican primary through President Trump's January endorsement and superior fundraising that exceeds $1.7 million, bolstering his visibility ahead of the July 21 contest. Recent exchanges in a May 5 televised debate and a May 7 social media clash over immigration comments have drawn scrutiny to Joseph Chaplik, the former state representative who resigned his seat in March to focus on the race. These developments, alongside Chaplik's lower cash reserves, align with the market's 71 percent implied probability for Feely versus 26 percent for Chaplik. The remaining field shows minimal movement, with most candidates holding under 1 percent as traders weigh the advantages of early institutional backing in this open seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$405,695
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 4, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 25, 2025, 5:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 14 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Jay Feely" sa 72%, sinusundan ng "Joseph Chaplik" sa 26%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 72¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 72% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay naka-generate ng $405.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 25, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano," i-browse ang 14 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay "Jay Feely" sa 72%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 72% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Joseph Chaplik" sa 26%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "AZ -01 Pangunahing Nagwagi ng Republikano" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.