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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
Mundo·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?
Mundo·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?

41-44% 42%

44%+ 36%

38-41% 10%

35-38% 4.1%

Polymarket
BAGO

41-44% 42%

44%+ 36%

38-41% 10%

35-38% 4.1%

Polymarket
BAGO

<35%

$408 Vol.

3%

35-38%

$541 Vol.

4%

38-41%

$1,103 Vol.

10%

41-44%

$1,372 Vol.

42%

44%+

$1,578 Vol.

36%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the low-to-mid 40s for the October 4 first round, reflecting a polarized electorate and a crowded field that includes Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as the main challenger. Lula’s recent decree raising Bolsa Família payments by 15 percent aims to bolster support among lower-income voters, while Supreme Court tensions involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes have added institutional friction that could affect turnout or undecided voters. Fragmented support for outsiders such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado prevents either frontrunner from consolidating quickly. These dynamics, combined with historically high rejection rates for both leading candidates, sustain the tight distribution traders currently price around the 41-44 percent range, with limited room for sharp late shifts absent major campaign developments.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,001
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the low-to-mid 40s for the October 4 first round, reflecting a polarized electorate and a crowded field that includes Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) as the main challenger. Lula’s recent decree raising Bolsa Família payments by 15 percent aims to bolster support among lower-income voters, while Supreme Court tensions involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes have added institutional friction that could affect turnout or undecided voters. Fragmented support for outsiders such as Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado prevents either frontrunner from consolidating quickly. These dynamics, combined with historically high rejection rates for both leading candidates, sustain the tight distribution traders currently price around the 41-44 percent range, with limited room for sharp late shifts absent major campaign developments.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,001
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Kaugnay

icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

87%
icon for Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

45%
icon for Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

48%

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "41-44%" sa 42%, sinusundan ng "44%+" sa 36%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 42¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Sep 15, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?" ay "41-44%" sa 42%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 42% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "44%+" sa 36%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.