Lula's sustained lead in recent polling, with support in the high 30s to low 40s percent range, has anchored trader consensus around his strong position to finish first in the October 4 first round. Flávio Bolsonaro trails in the low-to-mid 30s as the main opposition contender, while Augusto Cury has risen sharply into double digits through television exposure and social media. The official campaign period, which began in mid-August with free broadcast time and the first debate, has not altered the overall ordering. Incumbency advantages, a fragmented field of right-leaning alternatives, and the absence of major late shifts in voter intentions continue to support elevated implied probabilities for Lula topping the ballot. Second-round simulations remain tighter, but first-round dynamics favor the current leader securing the plurality.