Florida's 9th Congressional District race features incumbent Democrat Darren Soto seeking a sixth term against Republican Dan Green, a Navy veteran and former Trump administration Defense Department official. The primary driver of trader consensus favoring Green at 68.5% is the mid-decade redistricting that shifted the district from a Democratic lean to one where Donald Trump carried it by 17.7 points in 2024, incorporating more conservative counties in central and south-central Florida. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican based on this partisan shift and historical midterm patterns. Sparse public polling shows a close race, with Soto's internal surveys indicating a tie, while Green's primary win and outside spending add momentum ahead of the November 3 vote.