A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 18?
28°C or higher 67%
27°C 29%
26°C 3.4%
25°C <1%
BAGO
$41,939 Vol.
BAGO
$41,939 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
29%
28°C or higher
67%
28°C or higher 67%
27°C 29%
26°C 3.4%
25°C <1%
BAGO
$41,939 Vol.
BAGO
$41,939 Vol.
May 18, 2026
18°C or below
$3,106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,081 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,264 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,918 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,398 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$15,840 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,922 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,135 Vol.
3%
27°C
$2,888 Vol.
29%
28°C or higher
$3,991 Vol.
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$41,939Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.A dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,939Petsa ng Pagtatapos
May 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTA dominant high-pressure system over eastern Japan is steering warm, subsiding air into the Kanto Plain, supporting strong daytime insolation and pushing afternoon temperatures well above seasonal norms. Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble models currently project a daily maximum near or above 28 °C for Tokyo on May 18, consistent with recent observations of unseasonably warm conditions across the region. This setup explains why traders have priced 28 °C or higher as the clear favorite at 74 % implied probability, while outcomes at or below 27 °C remain secondary. The primary uncertainty lies in any last-minute shift in steering flow or increased cloud cover that could cap the peak a degree or two lower.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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