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Teknolohiya·Science

How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?

icon for How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?
Teknolohiya·Science

How far ahead of Google’s quantum benchmark will ECDSA.fail get by June 30?

BAGO
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$4,990 Vol.

Polymarket

40%+

$4,385 Vol.

100%

50%+

$605 Vol.

23%

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Recent trader sentiment for the ECDSA.fail market reflects the fixed Google benchmark of roughly 2.1 million Toffoli gates and 1,425 logical qubits for optimized Shor’s algorithm on the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, established in the March 2026 Google Quantum AI whitepaper. ECDSA.fail currently leads this reference point by a documented margin on its public tracker, with no subsequent peer-reviewed updates or model revisions from Google narrowing the gap in the intervening weeks. Quantum resource estimates remain anchored in logical-qubit counts and gate volume rather than physical hardware demonstrations, leaving limited room for near-term shifts before the June 30 resolution. The absence of new circuit compilations or error-correction breakthroughs in the final days supports market-implied odds favoring sustained leads at the 40%+ threshold.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Volume
$4,990
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.Recent trader sentiment for the ECDSA.fail market reflects the fixed Google benchmark of roughly 2.1 million Toffoli gates and 1,425 logical qubits for optimized Shor’s algorithm on the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem, established in the March 2026 Google Quantum AI whitepaper. ECDSA.fail currently leads this reference point by a documented margin on its public tracker, with no subsequent peer-reviewed updates or model revisions from Google narrowing the gap in the intervening weeks. Quantum resource estimates remain anchored in logical-qubit counts and gate volume rather than physical hardware demonstrations, leaving limited room for near-term shifts before the June 30 resolution. The absence of new circuit compilations or error-correction breakthroughs in the final days supports market-implied odds favoring sustained leads at the 40%+ threshold.

ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.”

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark.

If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point.

Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.
Volume
$4,990
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Jun 5, 2026, 12:31 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
ECDSA.fail tracks an open challenge to outperform Google’s quantum circuit benchmark for ECDSA-style elliptic-curve cryptography. Its official challenge site at www.ecdsa.fail/ measures progress based on the product of a circuit’s qubits and Toffoli gates and displays a headline metric such as “[x]% ahead of Google’s classified circuit.” This market will resolve to "Yes" if ECDSA.fail reports progress equal to or higher than the specified percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the Google reference point is fixed at 2,992,500,000, calculated as 2.1M Toffoli gates × 1,425 qubits, as shown on ECDSA.fail and corresponding to Google’s private low-gate Pareto point in the official ECDSA.fail challenge repository (https://github.com/ecdsafail/ecdsafail-challenge/blob/main/README.md). This fixed reference point will be used regardless of whether ECDSA.fail, Google, or any other source later updates, replaces, or redefines the Google reference benchmark. If ECDSA.fail no longer reports progress as a percentage ahead of the fixed Google reference point, resolution will be based on the best valid score shown by ECDSA.fail or officially confirmed by the challenge organizers before the resolution time, converted into a percentage improvement relative to the fixed Google reference point. Local runs, forks, pull requests, screenshots, or manually edited repository files will not qualify unless the result is reflected on the official ECDSA.fail challenge site or otherwise confirmed by the challenge organizers. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official ECDSA.fail challenge site (https://www.ecdsa.fail/). Official statements from the challenge organizers may also be used.

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