President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has declined steadily in early 2026, reaching new second-term lows near 34-38 percent in multiple national polls amid widespread dissatisfaction with U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict and its impact on inflation and living costs. Recent surveys from Reuters/Ipsos, Pew, and Nate Silver’s aggregator show disapproval climbing above 60 percent, with particular erosion among independents and some Republican voters on foreign policy and economic management. With November 2026 midterm elections approaching, these trends reflect standard historical patterns for presidents facing sustained foreign entanglements and domestic economic pressures. Traders assessing the market’s implied probabilities will watch for any diplomatic de-escalation, legislative wins, or positive economic data releases that could produce a temporary rebound before year-end.