Iran's political landscape in mid-2026 features heightened elite divisions following the February US-Israeli military campaign, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent election of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline lawmakers have issued public warnings of an imminent "coup" or "soft coup," accusing senior officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of maneuvering against hardliner interests during US truce or deal discussions. These statements reflect internal power struggles between clerical authority, the IRGC, and pragmatic factions amid wartime pressures, economic strain, and succession uncertainties. No confirmed military defections or organized attempts have materialized, though analysts note the regime's historical resilience and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed external actions to shift internal alignments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape in mid-2026 features heightened elite divisions following the February US-Israeli military campaign, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent election of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline lawmakers have issued public warnings of an imminent "coup" or "soft coup," accusing senior officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of maneuvering against hardliner interests during US truce or deal discussions. These statements reflect internal power struggles between clerical authority, the IRGC, and pragmatic factions amid wartime pressures, economic strain, and succession uncertainties. No confirmed military defections or organized attempts have materialized, though analysts note the regime's historical resilience and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed external actions to shift internal alignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape in mid-2026 features heightened elite divisions following the February US-Israeli military campaign, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent election of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline lawmakers have issued public warnings of an imminent "coup" or "soft coup," accusing senior officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of maneuvering against hardliner interests during US truce or deal discussions. These statements reflect internal power struggles between clerical authority, the IRGC, and pragmatic factions amid wartime pressures, economic strain, and succession uncertainties. No confirmed military defections or organized attempts have materialized, though analysts note the regime's historical resilience and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed external actions to shift internal alignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape in mid-2026 features heightened elite divisions following the February US-Israeli military campaign, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent election of his son Mojtaba as successor. Hardline lawmakers have issued public warnings of an imminent "coup" or "soft coup," accusing senior officials including Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian of maneuvering against hardliner interests during US truce or deal discussions. These statements reflect internal power struggles between clerical authority, the IRGC, and pragmatic factions amid wartime pressures, economic strain, and succession uncertainties. No confirmed military defections or organized attempts have materialized, though analysts note the regime's historical resilience and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs or renewed external actions to shift internal alignments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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