Iran's political landscape remains marked by factional tensions and leadership uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israel military campaign. Hardliners have publicly accused figures associated with interim governance, such as Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian, of pursuing a "soft coup" amid disputes over succession and policy toward a US truce, with warnings issued in July 2026 highlighting risks of internal power shifts. These developments occur against a backdrop of suppressed 2025-2026 protests, disrupted institutions, and ongoing regime change pressures, yet no verified military or organized coup attempt has materialized. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end due to the absence of recent escalatory triggers, though scheduled diplomatic or internal maneuvering could alter dynamics before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$2,115,833 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,115,833 Vol.
December 31
$74,607 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains marked by factional tensions and leadership uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israel military campaign. Hardliners have publicly accused figures associated with interim governance, such as Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian, of pursuing a "soft coup" amid disputes over succession and policy toward a US truce, with warnings issued in July 2026 highlighting risks of internal power shifts. These developments occur against a backdrop of suppressed 2025-2026 protests, disrupted institutions, and ongoing regime change pressures, yet no verified military or organized coup attempt has materialized. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end due to the absence of recent escalatory triggers, though scheduled diplomatic or internal maneuvering could alter dynamics before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,833Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains marked by factional tensions and leadership uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israel military campaign. Hardliners have publicly accused figures associated with interim governance, such as Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian, of pursuing a "soft coup" amid disputes over succession and policy toward a US truce, with warnings issued in July 2026 highlighting risks of internal power shifts. These developments occur against a backdrop of suppressed 2025-2026 protests, disrupted institutions, and ongoing regime change pressures, yet no verified military or organized coup attempt has materialized. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end due to the absence of recent escalatory triggers, though scheduled diplomatic or internal maneuvering could alter dynamics before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,833Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape remains marked by factional tensions and leadership uncertainty following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination in February 2026 and the subsequent US-Israel military campaign. Hardliners have publicly accused figures associated with interim governance, such as Ghalibaf and Pezeshkian, of pursuing a "soft coup" amid disputes over succession and policy toward a US truce, with warnings issued in July 2026 highlighting risks of internal power shifts. These developments occur against a backdrop of suppressed 2025-2026 protests, disrupted institutions, and ongoing regime change pressures, yet no verified military or organized coup attempt has materialized. Traders price a low probability of a widely reported coup attempt by year-end due to the absence of recent escalatory triggers, though scheduled diplomatic or internal maneuvering could alter dynamics before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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