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Mundo·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Mundo·Canada

Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Andrés Fontecilla 44%

Kelly Lazo de la Vega 37%

Emil Parfyonov 27%

Randy Legault-Rankin 25%

Polymarket
BAGO

Andrés Fontecilla 44%

Kelly Lazo de la Vega 37%

Emil Parfyonov 27%

Randy Legault-Rankin 25%

Polymarket
BAGO
icon for Andrés Fontecilla

Andrés Fontecilla

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Kelly Lazo de la Vega

Kelly Lazo de la Vega

$0 Vol.

37%

icon for Emil Parfyonov

Emil Parfyonov

$23 Vol.

27%

icon for Randy Legault-Rankin

Randy Legault-Rankin

$0 Vol.

25%

icon for Derek Lefebvre

Derek Lefebvre

$24 Vol.

24%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The 2026 Quebec general election campaign, launched after the August 27 dissolution for the October 5 vote, has kept the Laurier-Dorion race tight among frontrunners in a Montreal riding with a diverse electorate. Incumbent Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow edge in trader pricing, closely trailed by Conservateur candidate Derek Lefebvre, while Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ's Kelly Lazo de la Vega, and CAQ's Emil Parfyonov remain competitive factors. Models from late August projected QS with a modest advantage based on 2022 results transposed to new boundaries, yet market consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, immigration and housing messaging, and provincial swings that could fragment support. Upcoming nomination deadlines on September 17 and early campaign events may shift probabilities if they clarify voter blocs or highlight local contrasts.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$47
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The 2026 Quebec general election campaign, launched after the August 27 dissolution for the October 5 vote, has kept the Laurier-Dorion race tight among frontrunners in a Montreal riding with a diverse electorate. Incumbent Andrés Fontecilla of Québec solidaire holds a narrow edge in trader pricing, closely trailed by Conservateur candidate Derek Lefebvre, while Liberal Randy Legault-Rankin, PQ's Kelly Lazo de la Vega, and CAQ's Emil Parfyonov remain competitive factors. Models from late August projected QS with a modest advantage based on 2022 results transposed to new boundaries, yet market consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout, immigration and housing messaging, and provincial swings that could fragment support. Upcoming nomination deadlines on September 17 and early campaign events may shift probabilities if they clarify voter blocs or highlight local contrasts.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$47
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 5 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Andrés Fontecilla" sa 44%, sinusundan ng "Kelly Lazo de la Vega" sa 38%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 44¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 44% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 31, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," i-browse ang 5 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" ay "Andrés Fontecilla" sa 44%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 44% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Kelly Lazo de la Vega" sa 38%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Laurier-Dorion Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.