France’s fragmented National Assembly and repeated prime ministerial turnover have sustained pressure on President Emmanuel Macron, yet his second term runs through spring 2027 under constitutional rules that bar a third consecutive mandate. Recent weeks featured student protests, budget negotiations, and another short-lived government under Sébastien Lecornu, prompting fresh opposition calls for early elections or resignation; Macron has rejected both options and reaffirmed continuity. Trader pricing for an exit by December 31, 2026 remains low, reflecting the absence of formal mechanisms or majority support for removal and Macron’s consistent public stance. Scheduled parliamentary budget votes and the approach of the 2027 presidential contest represent the main near-term variables that could influence any reassessment of early departure odds.