Ukrainian drone operations against Russian territory, including strikes near Moscow, have repeatedly triggered the “Carpet” emergency protocol that halts arrivals and departures at Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, and Domodedovo airports. In early September 2026, President Zelenskyy publicly warned airlines and insurers that Russian airspace had become unsafe, prompting Ukraine to notify the ICAO; Russian authorities responded with overnight flight restrictions on consecutive nights, citing unidentified aerial threats and producing dozens of cancellations and hundreds of delays. These verified activations, alongside reports of intercepted drones and diverted flights, have shaped trader consensus on the likelihood and timing of further suspensions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments that could intensify or de-escalate long-range strikes remain the key variables that may shift probabilities before any market resolution date.