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icon for NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
Halalan·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

icon for NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
Halalan·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Mejia 20-25% 100.0%

Mejia 40%+ <1%

Mejia 35-40% <1%

Mejia 30-35% <1%

Polymarket

$26,179 Vol.

Mejia 20-25% 100.0%

Mejia 40%+ <1%

Mejia 35-40% <1%

Mejia 30-35% <1%

Polymarket

$26,179 Vol.

Mejia 40%+

$980 Vol.

No

Mejia 35-40%

$5,582 Vol.

No

Mejia 30-35%

$2,480 Vol.

No

Mejia 25-30%

$2,658 Vol.

No

Mejia 20-25%

$6,742 Vol.

Yes

Mejia <20%

$6,872 Vol.

No

Other

$865 Vol.

No

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Certified county canvasses from New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16 confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 60% to Republican Joe Hathaway's 39% victory, a 21-percentage-point margin that outperforms Kamala Harris's narrow district win by 12 points and sustains the seat's safely Democratic status vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. High turnout of 136,000 voters in a Thursday contest fueled Mejia's dominance in diverse towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Trump-won municipalities despite softer support in Jewish-heavy suburbs such as Livingston and Millburn. Traders price a 20-25% Mejia margin at 99.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent tallies across sources and no reported irregularities ahead of state certification via nj.gov. Only substantiated discrepancies in the final canvass could shift resolution, though the wide gap makes this improbable.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$26,179
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Certified county canvasses from New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16 confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 60% to Republican Joe Hathaway's 39% victory, a 21-percentage-point margin that outperforms Kamala Harris's narrow district win by 12 points and sustains the seat's safely Democratic status vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. High turnout of 136,000 voters in a Thursday contest fueled Mejia's dominance in diverse towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Trump-won municipalities despite softer support in Jewish-heavy suburbs such as Livingston and Millburn. Traders price a 20-25% Mejia margin at 99.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent tallies across sources and no reported irregularities ahead of state certification via nj.gov. Only substantiated discrepancies in the final canvass could shift resolution, though the wide gap makes this improbable.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$26,179
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 16, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Na-propose ang outcome: No

Walang dispute

Pinal na outcome: No

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mejia 20-25%" sa 100%, sinusundan ng "Mejia 40%+" sa 0%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 100¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ay naka-generate ng $26.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 16, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ay "Mejia 20-25%" sa 100%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 100% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Mejia 40%+" sa 0%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.