Traders assign very low probability to a Putin-Zelenskyy handshake by August 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of direct leader-level engagement since the full-scale invasion and repeated Russian rebuffs of Ukrainian proposals for face-to-face talks. In June 2026, Zelenskyy issued a public letter inviting Putin to neutral-country negotiations to end the war, but Putin dismissed the overture as having “no point” at present. Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks have produced only limited prisoner swaps and short-lived ceasefires, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and sanctions remain unresolved. Recent Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in mid-August have not yet prompted a summit-level breakthrough, and scheduled envoy visits offer no confirmed timeline for a bilateral leader meeting before month-end. Historical patterns and current diplomatic channel reliance reinforce trader skepticism that a handshake will occur within the narrow resolution window.