Ongoing diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled despite Vladimir Putin’s May 9 statement signaling conditional openness to a summit with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country only after experts finalize a lasting peace agreement. No direct meeting or ceasefire enabling such an encounter has been scheduled within the narrow window to June 30, amid continued Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and implementation timelines. US-mediated talks have produced limited progress on prisoner exchanges but no breakthrough framework. Traders’ 97.8 percent consensus on “No” reflects these structural barriers and the absence of concrete catalysts for rapid summit diplomacy, though a sudden trilateral accord or verified high-level announcement could still shift the outcome before the deadline.