Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateKasunduang nukleyar ng US - Iran sa Hunyo 30?
Kasunduang nukleyar ng US - Iran sa Hunyo 30?
Oo
$1,863,711 Vol.
$1,863,711 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Oo
$1,863,711 Vol.
$1,863,711 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,863,711Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,863,711Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program explain the 78% implied probability against a U.S.-Iran deal by June 30. President Trump rejected Iran's latest counterproposal on May 11, describing it as unacceptable and leaving the ceasefire in doubt due to insufficient limits on uranium enrichment. Ongoing indirect talks, mediated in Geneva and Islamabad, remain deadlocked on U.S. demands for a 12- to 20-year moratorium and verifiable curbs versus Tehran's preference for shorter restrictions alongside Strait of Hormuz access. New sanctions and separate discussions limited to maritime issues have further narrowed the window for agreement before the deadline.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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