US and Chinese officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions for non-strategic goods, agriculture, and energy products, building on the November 2025 trade truce that caps duties near 20% and expires November 10, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in mid-September to prepare for the Trump-Xi summit later that month, while bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment established in May 2026 provide formal channels for further cuts. Recent steps include China’s commitments to ease export controls on critical minerals and lift some retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These developments, combined with the short timeline to year-end, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% implied probability for a qualifying mutual tariff agreement by December 31. Late surprises or stalled extensions remain the main variables that could alter the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update91% tsansa
$256,599 Vol.
$256,599 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
91% tsansa
$256,599 Vol.
$256,599 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.US and Chinese officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions for non-strategic goods, agriculture, and energy products, building on the November 2025 trade truce that caps duties near 20% and expires November 10, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in mid-September to prepare for the Trump-Xi summit later that month, while bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment established in May 2026 provide formal channels for further cuts. Recent steps include China’s commitments to ease export controls on critical minerals and lift some retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These developments, combined with the short timeline to year-end, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% implied probability for a qualifying mutual tariff agreement by December 31. Late surprises or stalled extensions remain the main variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Binuksan ang Market: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$256,599Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.US and Chinese officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions for non-strategic goods, agriculture, and energy products, building on the November 2025 trade truce that caps duties near 20% and expires November 10, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in mid-September to prepare for the Trump-Xi summit later that month, while bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment established in May 2026 provide formal channels for further cuts. Recent steps include China’s commitments to ease export controls on critical minerals and lift some retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These developments, combined with the short timeline to year-end, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% implied probability for a qualifying mutual tariff agreement by December 31. Late surprises or stalled extensions remain the main variables that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$256,641Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Chinese officials are advancing talks on reciprocal tariff reductions for non-strategic goods, agriculture, and energy products, building on the November 2025 trade truce that caps duties near 20% and expires November 10, 2026. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in mid-September to prepare for the Trump-Xi summit later that month, while bilateral Boards of Trade and Investment established in May 2026 provide formal channels for further cuts. Recent steps include China’s commitments to ease export controls on critical minerals and lift some retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These developments, combined with the short timeline to year-end, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.3% implied probability for a qualifying mutual tariff agreement by December 31. Late surprises or stalled extensions remain the main variables that could alter the outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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