Trader consensus reflects a 65.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat facing expulsion by June 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents since Argentina's early April ouster of Tehran's top envoy amid a dispute over blacklisting Iran's IRGC. The U.S. State Department's April disclosure of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador underscored ongoing national security concerns but predates the resolution window. No verified espionage plots, terror links, or escalatory actions have surfaced in the past 30 days to prompt further persona non grata declarations, despite vocal calls like the UK Chief Rabbi's May 1 demand. Broader Middle East tensions persist via proxies, yet traders anticipate stability absent major catalysts such as airstrikes or sanctions shifts before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30?
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 65.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat facing expulsion by June 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents since Argentina's early April ouster of Tehran's top envoy amid a dispute over blacklisting Iran's IRGC. The U.S. State Department's April disclosure of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador underscored ongoing national security concerns but predates the resolution window. No verified espionage plots, terror links, or escalatory actions have surfaced in the past 30 days to prompt further persona non grata declarations, despite vocal calls like the UK Chief Rabbi's May 1 demand. Broader Middle East tensions persist via proxies, yet traders anticipate stability absent major catalysts such as airstrikes or sanctions shifts before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,591Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus reflects a 65.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat facing expulsion by June 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents since Argentina's early April ouster of Tehran's top envoy amid a dispute over blacklisting Iran's IRGC. The U.S. State Department's April disclosure of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador underscored ongoing national security concerns but predates the resolution window. No verified espionage plots, terror links, or escalatory actions have surfaced in the past 30 days to prompt further persona non grata declarations, despite vocal calls like the UK Chief Rabbi's May 1 demand. Broader Middle East tensions persist via proxies, yet traders anticipate stability absent major catalysts such as airstrikes or sanctions shifts before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$7,591Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 65.5% implied probability against another Iranian diplomat facing expulsion by June 30, driven by the absence of fresh diplomatic incidents since Argentina's early April ouster of Tehran's top envoy amid a dispute over blacklisting Iran's IRGC. The U.S. State Department's April disclosure of a quiet December 2025 expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador underscored ongoing national security concerns but predates the resolution window. No verified espionage plots, terror links, or escalatory actions have surfaced in the past 30 days to prompt further persona non grata declarations, despite vocal calls like the UK Chief Rabbi's May 1 demand. Broader Middle East tensions persist via proxies, yet traders anticipate stability absent major catalysts such as airstrikes or sanctions shifts before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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